အျငင္းပြားေနတဲ့ ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္ကိစၥမွာ ျမန္မာႏွင့္ ေဒသႏၱရ ႏိုင္ငံေရး (Geopolitics) ဆက္စပ္

by Lwin Aung Soe on Thursday, July 19, 2012 at 7:13am 

southchinaseastudies.org

အာဆီယံအေနနဲ႔ လူ႔အခြင့္အေရးနဲ႔ ဒီမိုကေရစီ အခက္အခဲေတြကို ေျပလည္ေအာင္ ႀကိဳးပမ္းလာေနႏိုင္ခ်ိန္မွာ ေနာက္ထပ္ ျပႆနာအသစ္တခုကို ရင္ဆိုင္ရဖို႔ကေတာ့ ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္မွာ တရုတ္က အင္အားသံုး အႏိုင္က်င့္ၿပီး လႊမ္းမိုးလာတာ ျဖစ္မယ္လို႔ ယူဆရပါမယ္။

သန္း ၅ဝဝ ရွိတဲ့ အာဆီယံေစ်းကြက္ဟာ တရုတ္ စီးပြားေရးအတြက္ ဘယ္ေတာ့မွ လက္လႊတ္လို႔ မရႏိုင္စေကာင္းပါပဲ။ တရုတ္က အႏိုင္က်င့္လာရင္ ဂ်ပန္၊ ေတာင္ကိုးရီးယား၊ ထိုင္ဝမ္အျပင္ အေမရိကန္နဲ႔ ဥေရာပ ေစ်းကြက္ပါ ေပ်ာက္သြားမွာ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။ တကမာၻလံုးမွာ တရုတ္ပစၥည္း သပိတ္ေမွာက္တာေတြထိ ျဖစ္သြားႏိုင္ပါတယ္။

အင္အားသာတဲ့ တဘက္က အင္အားသံုးလာရင္ အင္အားနည္းတဲ့ အျခားတဘက္က ဥာဏ္သံုး ရင္ဆိုင္ဖို႔သာ ရွိရပါေတာ့မယ္။ ဒါကေတာ့ စစ္ေရးအင္အားမွာ တရုတ္ကို မယွဥ္ႏိုင္တဲ့ အာဆီယံ ႏိုင္ငံငယ္ေလးမ်ားအတြက္ လက္နက္ေကာင္းတခုပါ။

တရုတ္ဟာ အာဖရိကနဲ႔ အေရွ႕အလယ္ပိုင္းကလာတဲ့  ေရနံေလာင္စာေတြကို မလက္ကား ေရလက္ၾကားနဲ႔ ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္ကို ျဖတ္ၿပီး သယ္ယူေနရပါတယ္။ အဲဒီလမ္းေၾကာင္းအေပၚၚ အမွီအခို ေလ်ာ့ပါးႏိုင္ဖို႔ တရုတ္က အားထုတ္ရာမွာ အာရွအလယ္ပိုင္း ႏိုင္ငံေတြအျပင္ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံ ကုန္းတြင္းကို ျဖတ္ၿပီး သယ္ယူဖို႔ ပိုက္လိုင္းေတြ တည္ေဆာက္လာပါတယ္။

တရုတ္အေနနဲ႔ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံကို ျဖတ္သြားတဲ့ ပိုက္လိုင္းက ၿပီးသြားရင္ေတာင္၊ ၿပီးေတာ့ ျမန္မာအစိုးရနဲ႔ ေျပလည္ေနတဲ့တိုင္ေအာင္ (လက္နက္အပါအဝင္) တရုတ္ကုန္ေတြကို ပို႔ဖို႔ ေတာင္တရုတ္ပင္လယ္နဲ႔ မလက္ကား ေရလက္ၾကားကို တရုတ္က ဆက္လက္ အသံုးျပဳေနရဦးမွာ ျဖစ္ပါတယ္။

လာမယ့္ႏွစ္ေတြအတြင္းမွာ ျဖစ္ပ်က္လာႏိုင္စရာေတြဟာ တရုတ္နဲ႔ အာဆီယံ ဆက္ဆံေရး ဘယ္ေလာက္ထိ စိတ္ခ်လက္ခ် ေကာင္းေနေအာင္ ဘယ္လိုထိန္းထားႏိုင္မလဲ... အာဆီယံဟာ ေဒသတြင္း စီးပြားေရး အဖြဲ႔အစည္းအျဖစ္နဲ႔ လံုေလာက္ေအာင္ ရပ္တည္ႏိုင္ပါ့မလား... အာဆီယံရဲ႕ ညီညြတ္မႈဟာ ဘယ္ေလာက္ထိ ၾကံ့ၾကံ့ခံႏိုင္မလဲ ... စတဲ့ အခ်က္ေတြေပၚ အနည္းအမ်ား မူတည္လာပါတယ္။

ျမန္မာ့ႏိုင္ငံေရးဟာ အရင္ဆယ္စုႏွစ္ေတြလို လူတဦး-တဖြဲ႔က စိတ္ႀကိဳက္စီမံတာမ်ဳိး မဟုတ္ေတာ့ဘဲ ျမန္မာႏိုင္ငံသားေတြရဲ႕ ဆႏၵအရ စီမံတာမ်ိးသာ ျဖစ္လာရပါေတာ့မယ္။ ျမန္မာျပည္သူေတြဟာ ေဒသႏၱရ ႏိုင္ငံေရး (Geopolitics) ကို မ်ားမ်ားႀကီး သိေနမွလည္း လူထုဆႏၵနဲ႔ တိုင္းျပည္အက်ဳိးကို ပိုမိုေကာင္းမြန္ေအာင္ ဝိုင္းဝန္းအၾကံျပဳ စီမံေပးႏိုင္စရာ ရွိပါမယ္။

Geopolitics ကို ျဖစ္ႏိုင္သမွ် ေလ့လာေစလိုပါတယ္။

လြင္ေအာင္စိုး

၁၉-၇-၂ဝ၁၂

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ဖတ္ရႈေလ့လာရန္ သတင္း -

SE Asia seeks common ground on S.China Sea spat

Thu Jul 19, 2012 8:54am EDT

* Cambodian and Indonesian foreign ministers push for consensus

* Indonesian foreign minister on whistle-stop SE Asia tour

* Large Chinese fishing fleet arrives in Spratly Islands (Updates with Indonesian foreign minister press meet on Friday)

By Prak Chan Thul

JAKARTA/PHNOM PENH, July 19 (Reuters) - Indonesia's foreign minister will detail talks by Southeast Asian states aimed at crafting a joint statement on the South China Sea dispute, which undermined a regional summit last week and underscored growing tensions over the territory.

Marty Natalegawa will hold a news conference in Jakarta on Friday after visiting Cambodia on Thursday as part of a whistle-stop tour aimed at repairing discord among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over the best way to resolve disputes in the South China Sea.

The territorial wrangle between the Philippines, Taiwan, China and Vietnam over potentially oil and gas rich areas in the South China Sea has exposed how deeply ASEAN member states have been polarised by China's rapidly expanding economic influence in the region.

But Cambodia's Foreign Minister Hor Namhong on Thursday said that some form of statement on how a number of issues involved in the dispute could be handled could be released this week.

"We, ASEAN foreign ministers, agreed in principle on a number of issues over the South China Sea issue," Hor Namhong told a brief news conference on Thursday after meeting Natalegawa , without giving details.

"I hope that by tomorrow morning, we will receive approval confirmation from all ASEAN foreign ministers in order to announce these points."

Natalegawa, before flying back to Jakarta from Phnom Penh on Thursday, said the key points of a statement had been outlined and the "basic positions" could be announced imminently if the other states were to approve.

In 2002, ASEAN and China adopted an informal code of conduct in the South China Sea to avoid conflict and ease tensions. Last week they indicated efforts to work on a formal code, although no firm commitments were made.

Bickering over how to address the increasingly assertive role of China -- an ally of several ASEAN states -- in the strategic waters of the South China Sea has placed the issue squarely as Southeast Asia's biggest potential military flashpoint.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attended last week's summit and called on all parties, including China, to make clear exactly what their claims were in the South China Sea and open multilateral talks, something likely to rile Beijing, the resident superpower that prefers a b i lateral approach.

The United States insists it is neutral on the issue, but having recently signed military cooperation agreements with claimant states Vietnam and the Philippines, China has become increasingly wary of its intentions.

On Thursday, China's state-run news agency Xinhua said a fishing fleet of 30 boats, including a 3,000-tonne lead boat, arrived at what China calls the Zhubi Reef in the Spratly Islands for fishing on Wednesday, almost a week after leaving port in south China's Hainan province.

The reef is claimed by Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam.

"Although Chinese fishermen have fished in the South China Sea for centuries, the size of the fishing fleet makes it a rarity," Xinhua said.

ASEAN included Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. (Writing by Martin Petty; Additional reporting by Neil Chatterjee; Editing by Ed Lane)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/19/asean-cambodia-scs-idUSL4E8IJ3D820120719